A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."