Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.